what’s going on everyone my name is Nicolas Merton here a day – – in today’s January 14th of 2020 well folks I hope you are having a fantastic day wherever you are and in today’s video I want to spend some time to talk about why I believe after looking at all of the data all of the available resources that we have why I believe Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies alike are set to reverse and go higher into 2020 and setup for new highs in 2021 we’ve got a lot of interesting things to take a look at guys if you liked the video please share it with a family or friend member because I think this is a very interesting time for Koopa currency markets alright so let’s go ahead and start taking a look across the board for the market most cryptocurrencies are up in the green at the moment we can see here though that a lot of cryptocurrencies are not giving up at Bitcoin but for the ones that are either keeping up with Bitcoin are outpacing it we’re seeing some of the larger caps for example we see a theorem here up 6% outpacing Bitcoin a lot of them as well Leo’s of 7.6% Bitcoin cash up twelve point three percent as well as players like – here up 28% in Bitcoin SV up 44% so what we’re seeing here are some of the larger caps leading against Bitcoin here which might be showing us again a shift and liquidity here towards some of the more riskier plays and again you tend to find that it’s a stepping stone process going from Bitcoin to some of the larger cap ball coins down towards the mid caps and small caps it’s generally how the cycles work in crypto markets along with that as well we can see here that over the last few weeks we’ve been able to regain over fifty four billion dollars in crypto currency market cap across the board over the last few weeks since we set the bottom here in December of 2019 this is really good to see a good stable effort here as we saw over a course of a couple of months here we’re Krypton markets were able to hold around that 200 billion dollar figure make it support doubling from the bottom back here and around a hundred billion dollars I’ll go ahead and zoom out so you can see what I’m talking about we were able to double from support bet down here around 800 billion dollars and again continue higher here for the cycle we were overextended we had a stark correction compared last previous ones because we had one of the best routes we had out of the accumulation phase which was extremely small so it makes sense why we had such a long term correction and then all coins as well getting back I think if I remember the math correctly about a 19 billion dollars in a market cap if I remember our 18 billion dollars in market capitalization from the low to the high here now outside of that as well if we just take a look at bitcoins chart here a lot of the things are flash and positive for us I like the sideways price actually we had after a multi-month correction from back here during June during the summer when we peaked out near around 14,000 it had over 50% plus correction we pushed sideways and now we’re having a healthy uptrend to the upside with decent levels of volume but the thing that really signals to me is that all of our indicators are flashing on the weekly we’re seeing the squeeze a momentum indicator rising higher we’re seeing the MACD the divergence closing in and looking like we might get across next week or the week after which is really exciting and then along with that as well both of the lines coming up here in the stochastic RSI which would mean that if we get that cross in the MACD all five points are flashing for Bitcoin meaning that it’s a you know clear sign in this case between the indicators that markets are moving higher okay that’s not a guarantee that it’s gonna go exorbitantly higher from here but again I think it’s a signal that we’re starting to reverse the trend here and then over the next few months we can start to move higher past the previous highs for 2019 and retest back up here towards the 20,000 mark which we haven’t tested since back here in 2017 so very exciting stuff so in the sense of price but let’s go ahead and take a look at some of the data science models right and we saw historically back here during the last last cycle that when price came down on the two-year MA multiplier it actually slightly dipped below and kind of correlated around the two-year MA multiplier so the two-year moving average multiplier well if we take a look here we can see Bitcoin did the exact same thing right and again we’re talking about larger prices here in this case so again having a probably a little bit more of a divergence here but still holding slightly below the indicator for some time and then moving back above it and then right after we moved back up we started to pick up into the cycle picking up faster and faster to month by month and again very far too extended away from the five-year multiplier which again right now is starting to dip down as it was over here right the redline and we start to see it curving upward okay well with it as well we take a look at the NVR V z-score now again this is taking market cap – realized cap and dividing it by the standard deviation of market cap long story short we see historical similarities in this measurement between market cap and realized cap we had had an exorbitant rally over two points as we did both times after exiting out of the accumulation phase right that’s exactly what we got here but again because we had an overextended rally we also had a pretty stark pullback here compared to the last few ones however it’s very similar to what we saw back in the past going below the 1 point range and then it’s starting to tick back up as we enter into the cycle very similar to history along with that as well the plow multiple probably one of the clearest examples of historical similarities here right usually topping out here a little bit about the two point range coming back down here below one point alright that’s what we see historically after we’ve entered in to the accumulation phase for Bitcoin down here right that’s what happens post accumulation phase well that’s exactly what we got and it shows us that we’re really not that oversold right now in the sense of daily Bitcoin issuance right people are buying into the market right now now another thing as well is taking a look at the stock to flow model this is probably one of most important things to focus on we can see here that historically if we take a look back here during the last cycle right we hovered below the line for the stock to flow model for a good amount of time and then we started to tick upwards and start going parabolic as we started to enter into the next cycle and as the color shifted here after we had gone through the halving then we started to see again we enter into the yellow should in greenish phase when we start entering to the ball market that’s what we’re going to be looking for this next time around now the important thing to focus on is not only that we’re in a very similar situation just hovering slightly below there and we’re starting to enter upwards as the color starts to turn purple like it was last time but along with that speaking about the days away from the happening we’re less than a hundred twenty days away from the having event this is roughly speaking about formal right the expected date is May 13th of 2020 that could variably change you could get a day before day after but it’s pretty predictable we’re gonna get it around that range sometime in mid May and we’re really not that far away now the important thing to consider about this and again I want to stress this we’ve talked about it on a previous video the importance of inflows and outflows and markets and why be having an event is not priced in just yet okay because at the end of the day what dictates a current asset price right here right now is the difference in buyers and sellers and during the day if there is a mass amount of buyers or a mass amount of sellers it’s going to have an out way on price and these are people who are placing market orders they want it to get filled and they want to get filled now so they want to sell a house in Bitcoin or they want to buy a thousand Bitcoin all right so we can do some very simple math here right into the current price in order for Bitcoin to maintain its price we’d have to have an equal amount generally speaking of people buying at 8500 and selling at 8500 the problem is is that buyers are going up against a lot they’re not only going up against sellers in this case on the market which should be seen as kind of usually most markets usually just buyers and sellers but along with that you’ve got miners in the market who are constantly selling because it’s difficult to operate profitably as a miner what you have to do is you literally have to sell the Bitcoin you mine and you basically are going after the one or two percent or possibly three percent but you could make depending on your energy costs for mining this Bitcoin after paying for your hardware and electricity so we have between these two an equal a very high-level amount of pressure and buyers no matter what this number is between the sellers and miners it has to be equal in the site for buyers just to maintain price well we’re starting to see price tick up interestingly enough so this means that we’re getting more buyers on the market order side than we are on the sellers and the miners right and this item means miners aren’t selling as much or buyers are just buying more then the latter is more likely that buyers are buying more into anticipation for the halving so we have more buyers coming in but along with that and a couple of months we are going to have a halving of it okay and this means that we are going to see a reduction I’m daily issued Bitcoin right these numbers are just factoring in here this 1800 Bitcoin is how many new Bitcoin are issued every single day and that miners are likely selling on the open market or through OTC markets if that gets cut in half that number drops down to a significantly lower level down to seven point six million so if the buyers maintain themselves at those levels as we see with crypto markets by said action continues as price is starting to move higher right was people start to kind of pile on that the word gets out about Bitcoin markets are moving higher again this number is either usually set to maintain itself if not grow then it starts to outpace the sell side and that’s what leads to these parabolic cycles in Bitcoin it’s why the halving model for Bitcoin is so effective at leading into these price cycles we see it historically in the stock to flow model I mean if you take a look back history as you can see you’re generally speaking at this period of time when we’re this many days away from the halving event you can see the colors change here on this dr.

Flow model and afterwards the cycle just kicks off it’s not that complex it’s very basic math right and I’m likely betting that at least in my view that the third time’s a charm and we’re gonna continue to go on with this continued cycle that we’ve seen every single time when we enter into the halving okay so that’s just my view you guys computed a different way again less than a hundred twenty days away another thing to take into mind as well as the crypto of fear and greed index right so as we can see your greed has been rising here but we’re nowhere near we were back in June levels here so I’d say that we’ve got a decent amount of time before we have to be worried about being overextended at the moment and the last thing I want to talk about here is really talking about what’s been going on in equity markets now as we’ve talked about lot on the channel ever since the yield curve inversion happened and a lot of the big recession headlines really started to hit back in 2019 I stressed a very key point here which was that once we have the yield curve inversion for those you may not know it’s it’s wind shorter term yields in this case are paying a higher term yield then longer-term bond Treasury yields in this case for Treasury notes in the United States which is the u.s.

U.s. form of government bond the interesting thing is that we tend to have a 15% market rally and so the major indices like the S&P 500 from the point of the yield curve inversion and sometimes it actually turns out that we have about a year a year and a half our markets still move higher but the interesting thing is that we’ve had such a parabolic run-up in equities this year we’ve already outpaced that average turned 18 percent post yield curve inversion this is when we started back here and that’s just in the S&P 500 if we take a look at the Nasdaq here we can see in that same period of time we’ve got up 21.6 5% this is just absolutely crazy guys but I want to make it very clear here my point here in focusing on equities is that we’ve still got a little ways to go I really do believe and I’ve come to the conclusion that what we’re gonna likely see is a doubling on the value of the nasty x value during the dot-com bubble which was around 5,000 we’re going to 10,000 Nasdaq and along with that as well we’re likely going here to around 3,400 for the S&P 500 right now again taking these things into mind here am I’m like saying to get bullish on equities now really again even though not only are we not guaranteed that these will happen guys it’s not a form of financial advice for me there’s a very short potential reward profile for the risk you’re taking on buying this late into the cycle where it’s going near parabolic you can see this guy’s this is what happens every single time it’s what happened during the dot-com bubble take a look back here at the Nasdaq does this look familiar the vertical price action it’s pretty damn similar and it’s because we’re entering into the peak eforea of a market cycle if you take a look at some of the major tech companies over the last few weeks Apple going from here back in October of 2019 has nearly added I think it was around 250 billion dollars in the course of a couple of weeks and if they continue higher to doubling on top of 2230 300 where the trillion dollar market cap was reached then it’s going to be 1.5 trillion dollars in market cap for Apple in this case it’s gonna have added it will have at it in that short period of time from October 500 billion dollars in valuation did Apple do anything through it innovation to reach that valuation did it change something that’s business model that made it go up five hundred billion dollars in valuation or was it the peak of a market cycle and the funny money that the Fed is printed into the economy reaching its later stage in an overall equity cycle take a look at Microsoft similar situation from that same period of time Microsoft has climbed up here from this time period in October up nearly almost 20 percent around seventeen point eight percent from its current valuation down here that means that it easily added over two hundred billion dollars here over the last few weeks received in the last few months if we’re talking about October did it do anything to really deserve that or change its business model to equal that valuation no it’s the peak of a market cycle so my point in all of this I know I rambled on and kind of went on a small tangent here this again plays into another factor here for crypto markets every single market whether it is property markets equities you know bond markets we take a look at TLT for example take a look at a bond markets here right bond markets overextended on the higher end of the channel here when we’re taking a look at US Treasuries if you take a look across other government bonds or other types of commercial bonds bonds are overextended they’ve been in a bull market for the last few decades so if we’re taking all these things in combination right we have all these positive factors going for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies we take a look at global markets and we see that practically every single market is overextended outside of gold and silver right now which are actually quite cheap but still outperforming the S&P 500 as they’ve started to set higher lows we now have to ask ourselves where are we going to position ourselves right where’s the place to park our capital at the moment now you guys are gonna have to determine that for yourself I’m not gonna try to determine where you should put your money I’m not your money manager and all that as well you come here to this channel is a component of your journey of you know becoming your own investor in your own trader if you so choose to write but for me I’m excessively positioned in Bitcoin I’m highly anticipating the future of where Vic wins going here I like the momentum I’m seeing I definitely want to see more volume follow-through but taking a look at the longer term picture for Bitcoin here on the brain new coin liquid index take a look at the monthly right turning off the indicators here just simply taking a look at price we are in the channel as expected we made contact like we’ve had multiple times back here during the previous cycle it’s time for us to start moving higher in anticipation for the halving event later on and May of this year and hopefully new all-time highs in 2021 I’m very excited for this guys I think we’ve got a lot of interesting things coming up here in the market with all the fundamental changes going on on the Bitcoin network and the etherium network through defy and a lot of the exciting applications finally coming on to fruition that really have to do with financial markets and store value I think that we’ve got a lot of potential for cryptocurrencies to grow here in the next couple of months and over the next few years and I’m gonna be sure as hell here helping you guys throughout the process trying to guide you all through this market teaching you all what I can about kirpa currencies and finance and enjoying it all at the same time so if you guys like this video drop a like and again as I mentioned if you enjoyed this and you think it’d be relevant to kind of you know showcase to people where we are right now crypto market share with a friend or family member I think it’d be very relevant alright hope you guys are having a great day wherever you are and I’ll see you all in the next video stay tuned you